Scenario Explorer

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We have almost certainly passed the point where greenhouse gas emission reductions alone can prevent very serious consequences from a changing climate (see Figure 1 below and the “About Scenarios” menu option), as the temperature increase will likely be over 2.0°C in 2050 for any realistic emissions pathway.  The only way to avoid the very serious consequences appears to by proactively reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface until such time as sufficient CO2 can be removed from the atmosphere to reduce the temperature increase to 1.5°C or less without the need for albedo modification.

The “Scenario Explorer” has been designed to help people to understand the assumptions that underly the temperature increase projections made by climate scientists so that they can make informed decisions about the climate policies that need to be implemented in order to avoid the likely serious consequences of global warming. It focuses is primarily on giving users the ability to discover the amount of sunlight that must be reflected or CO2 that must be removed from the atmosphere to reach a specific temperature goal:  the “Temperature Explorer” allows a specific temperature increase goal (initially set to 1.5°C) and calculates the amount of both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removes to meet that goal, while the “Scenario Explorer” allows for the changing of many of the assumptions that are used to calculate the corresponding temperature increase.

This Website makes extensive use of “tooltips”, which are available whenever the there is a “dotted underline” under the text.

There are nine menu options:

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This page

About Scenarios   

Defines a climate scenario, discusses the data items from a scenario which the model uses, shows several of the data items for 18 scenarios, and has graphs showing the temperature increase projections for 51 scenarios that had 2025 data relatively close to expected 2025 values for CO2 emissions, CO2 PPM, and temperature increase. Please review the charts and graphs in this section as they demonstrate why a temperature increase of over 2.0°C is expected in “mitigation only” scenarios.

Consequences 

This page will discuss the consequences of exceeding the 1.5°C temperature increase target for significant period of time

Background

Discusses some of the rational for the Scenario Explorer

Instructions 

Instructions on using this Web site

Temperature Explorer   

Allows a specific temperature increase goal (initially set to 1.5°C) and calculates the amount of both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removes to meet that goal

Scenario Explorer   

Allows for the changing of many of the assumptions that are used to calculate the corresponding temperature increase.

What If   

Describes how to user the Scenario Explorer for “What If” analysis; also describes how the model works

About

About the Website


Click here for a description as to how the model works. 

Even if net CO2 emissions peak in 2035 and decline to zero in 2065 (see Figure 1), the temperature increase in 2100 will be about 2.2°C. Reaching the 1.5°C temperature increase target in 2100 would require CO2 capture and storage of 20 GTCO2 in addition to the CO2 capture and storage required for net zero,at a (at a likely prohibative cost of $1-$2 Trillion per year) . Even so, the temperature would peak around 2.0°C in 2055. And this does not take into account the 2023 sudden decrease in the Earth’s albedo or the likely acceleration of the decadal temperature increase.  Table 1 shows all of the caclulations used to derive the temperature increase without carbon removal and Table 2 shows all of the caclulations used to derive the temperature increase with carbon removal.


Figure 1.

Table 1 Scenario Summary Without Carbon Removal
Table 2 Scenario Summary With Carbon Removal
      QQOverviewQQ       QQReviewQQ       QQInputQQ       QQDeep DiveQQ
Anthropogenic (human caused) CO2 emissions, including those from the burning of fossil fuels, manufacturing cement, and land use changes
Anthropogenic (human caused) CO2 emissions, including those from the burning of fossil fuels, manufacturing cement, and land use changes
CCS Carbon capture and storage (CCS) refers to a collection of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes before they enter the atmosphere. The captured CO2 can either be utilized or stored in the ground.
CCS Carbon capture and storage (CCS) refers to a collection of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes before they enter the atmosphere. The captured CO2 can either be utilized or stored in the ground.
Direct air capture (DAC) includes a suite of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere using chemical or physical processes
Direct air capture (DAC) includes a suite of technologies that remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere using chemical or physical processes
Afforestation is the process of planting trees in an area where there were none previously, with the goal of creating a new forest or woodland. It is a key strategy in combating climate change, as trees absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, helping to reduce the overall concentration of greenhouse gases. (Source: ChatGPT)
Afforestation is the process of planting trees in an area where there were none previously, with the goal of creating a new forest or woodland. It is a key strategy in combating climate change, as trees absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, helping to reduce the overall concentration of greenhouse gases. (Source: ChatGPT)
Mineralization is a process in which carbon dioxide (CO2) is chemically transformed into stable mineral compounds, such as carbonates, through natural or engineered reactions. This is a form of carbon capture and storage (CCS), aimed at mitigating climate change by permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere or industrial processes. (source: ChatGP
Mineralization is a process in which carbon dioxide (CO2) is chemically transformed into stable mineral compounds, such as carbonates, through natural or engineered reactions. This is a form of carbon capture and storage (CCS), aimed at mitigating climate change by permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere or industrial processes. (source: ChatGP
Agricultural soil carbon refers to the carbon stored in the soil as part of the soil organic matter (SOM), which includes plant roots, decomposing plant and animal residues, and microbial biomass. This carbon plays a critical role in maintaining soil health, fertility, and structure, and can contribute significantly to mitigating climate change if managed effectively. (source: ChatGPT)
Agricultural soil carbon refers to the carbon stored in the soil as part of the soil organic matter (SOM), which includes plant roots, decomposing plant and animal residues, and microbial biomass. This carbon plays a critical role in maintaining soil health, fertility, and structure, and can contribute significantly to mitigating climate change if managed effectively. (source: ChatGPT)
Biochar is considered a promising technology for carbon sequestration and combating climate change. The carbon stored in biochar remains stable in the soil for centuries or longer, and its use in agriculture can help reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Because biochar is produced from renewable biomass, it can also contribute to a circular economy, where waste materials are turned into valuable products rather than being discarded or burned.(source: ChatGPT)
Biochar is considered a promising technology for carbon sequestration and combating climate change. The carbon stored in biochar remains stable in the soil for centuries or longer, and its use in agriculture can help reduce CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Because biochar is produced from renewable biomass, it can also contribute to a circular economy, where waste materials are turned into valuable products rather than being discarded or burned.(source: ChatGPT)
Oceanic removal (or ocean carbon removal - mCDR)) refers to strategies and technologies aimed at removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it in the ocean. The ocean is a major carbon sink, absorbing about 25% of global CO2 emissions. However, oceanic removal focuses on enhancing this natural process or directly removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in ocean ecosystems or geological formations beneath the ocean. (source: ChatGPT)
Oceanic removal (or ocean carbon removal - mCDR)) refers to strategies and technologies aimed at removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it in the ocean. The ocean is a major carbon sink, absorbing about 25% of global CO2 emissions. However, oceanic removal focuses on enhancing this natural process or directly removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it in ocean ecosystems or geological formations beneath the ocean. (source: ChatGPT)
Carbon removal refers to all human derived techniques/process that remove CO2 from the atmopshere (CCS, DAC, mineraliation, etc.)
Carbon removal refers to all human derived techniques/process that remove CO2 from the atmopshere (CCS, DAC, mineraliation, etc.)
Climate feedbacks refer to processes that can amplify or dampen the effects of climate change. These feedbacks are mechanisms that occur as a result of the changing climate itself and either reinforce or mitigate the initial changes caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. (source: ChatGPT)
Climate feedbacks refer to processes that can amplify or dampen the effects of climate change. These feedbacks are mechanisms that occur as a result of the changing climate itself and either reinforce or mitigate the initial changes caused by human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. (source: ChatGPT)
Total Net CO2
Cumulative CO2 emissions after the year 2024
The airborne fraction (AF) refers to the portion of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere that remains in the atmosphere, rather than being absorbed by natural carbon sinks such as oceans, forests, and soils. In simpler terms, it is the fraction of CO2 emissions that do not get sequestered by these natural systems and therefore contribute to the accumulation of atmospheric CO2, which is a primary driver of climate change. (source:ChatGPT) (Note: a value is not displayed if 'total net CO2 emissions are zero or less)
CO2 emissions absorbed by the land and oceanic sinks. Ocean and land sinks refer to natural processes by which the Earth's oceans and terrestrial ecosystems (such as forests, soils, and wetlands) absorb and store carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. These carbon sinks are crucial in regulating the Earth's climate, as they help mitigate the impact of human CO2 emissions, preventing even higher levels of atmospheric CO2 that would otherwise accelerate climate change. (source: ChatGPT)
CO2 emissions added to the atmosphere
The amount of CO2 added to the atmosphere in 'parts per million' (PPM)
The atmospheric concentration of CO2
The radiative forcing of CO2 (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing of CH4 (methane). Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas and the primary component of natural gas. It is colorless, odorless, and highly flammable. While methane is less abundant than carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, it has a much higher global warming potential (GWP) over a short time frame, making it a critical factor in global climate change.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of CH4 (methane). Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas and the primary component of natural gas. It is colorless, odorless, and highly flammable. While methane is less abundant than carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, it has a much higher global warming potential (GWP) over a short time frame, making it a critical factor in global climate change.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of N2O(in W/m-2). Nitrous oxide (N2O), commonly known as laughing gas, is a potent greenhouse gas and an ozone-depleting substance. It occurs naturally in the environment but is also significantly produced by human activities, particularly in agriculture and industrial processes. N2O is an important compound in the context of both climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of N2O(in W/m-2). Nitrous oxide (N2O), commonly known as laughing gas, is a potent greenhouse gas and an ozone-depleting substance. It occurs naturally in the environment but is also significantly produced by human activities, particularly in agriculture and industrial processes. N2O is an important compound in the context of both climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of HFCs (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing of HFCs (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing of CFCs (in W/m-2)Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are a group of man-made compounds that contain chlorine, fluorine, and carbon atoms. They were once commonly used as refrigerants, solvents, propellants in aerosol cans, and in the manufacturing of foam products. However, it was later discovered that CFCs have a devastating effect on the ozone layer and contribute to global warming, leading to their phase-out through international agreements.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of CFCs (in W/m-2)Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are a group of man-made compounds that contain chlorine, fluorine, and carbon atoms. They were once commonly used as refrigerants, solvents, propellants in aerosol cans, and in the manufacturing of foam products. However, it was later discovered that CFCs have a devastating effect on the ozone layer and contribute to global warming, leading to their phase-out through international agreements.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone (in W/m-2). Tropospheric ozone (O3) refers to the ozone found in the troposphere, which is the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere (extending from the surface up to about 8 to 15 kilometers, depending on the latitude). Unlike stratospheric ozone, which is concentrated in the ozone layer and plays a crucial role in protecting life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation, tropospheric ozone is a secondary pollutant, meaning it is not directly emitted but forms through complex chemical reactions in the atmosphere.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of tropospheric ozone (in W/m-2). Tropospheric ozone (O3) refers to the ozone found in the troposphere, which is the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere (extending from the surface up to about 8 to 15 kilometers, depending on the latitude). Unlike stratospheric ozone, which is concentrated in the ozone layer and plays a crucial role in protecting life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation, tropospheric ozone is a secondary pollutant, meaning it is not directly emitted but forms through complex chemical reactions in the atmosphere.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing from contrais (in W/m-2). Contrails (short for condensation trails) are visible streaks of cloud-like formations that are sometimes seen in the sky behind aircraft flying at high altitudes. They are formed when water vapor and gases in the aircraft's exhaust mix with the cooler air at high altitudes, causing the water vapor to condense and freeze into tiny ice crystals. Contrails are a form of artificial cloud, and while they may seem harmless, they can have significant impacts on the environment, particularly in relation to climate change. (source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing from contrais (in W/m-2). Contrails (short for condensation trails) are visible streaks of cloud-like formations that are sometimes seen in the sky behind aircraft flying at high altitudes. They are formed when water vapor and gases in the aircraft's exhaust mix with the cooler air at high altitudes, causing the water vapor to condense and freeze into tiny ice crystals. Contrails are a form of artificial cloud, and while they may seem harmless, they can have significant impacts on the environment, particularly in relation to climate change. (source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of land use changes (in W/m-2).(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing of land use changes (in W/m-2).(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing from black carbon on snow Black carbon on snow refers to fine particulate matter, primarily produced by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biomass, and other organic materials, that settles on snow and ice surfaces. These particles, often referred to as soot, are dark in color and can significantly impact snow and ice dynamics, as well as the climate. (in W/m-2)(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing from black carbon on snow Black carbon on snow refers to fine particulate matter, primarily produced by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biomass, and other organic materials, that settles on snow and ice surfaces. These particles, often referred to as soot, are dark in color and can significantly impact snow and ice dynamics, as well as the climate. (in W/m-2)(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing from all of greenhouse gases other than the ones listed above (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing from all of greenhouse gases other than the ones listed above (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing from all of the greenhouse gases except CO2, CH2, and N2O (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing from all of the greenhouse gases except CO2, CH2, and N2O (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing of all of the greenhouse gases (in W/m-2)
The radiative forcing from aerosols (in W/m-2). Aerosols are tiny solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere. They can originate from both natural sources and human activities. Aerosols play a crucial role in the Earth's climate system and can have significant effects on air quality, weather patterns, and the global climate.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing from aerosols (in W/m-2). Aerosols are tiny solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere. They can originate from both natural sources and human activities. Aerosols play a crucial role in the Earth's climate system and can have significant effects on air quality, weather patterns, and the global climate.(source: ChatGPT)
The radiative forcing from changes in the Earth's albedo (in W/m-2).

Albedo is a term used to describe the reflectivity of a surface or body, specifically how much sunlight (solar radiation) is reflected by that surface compared to how much is absorbed. It is expressed as a percentage or a value between 0 and 1, where:

  • Albedo of 0 means no reflection (complete absorption of sunlight).
  • Albedo of 1 means perfect reflection (no absorption of sunlight).

In other words, a surface with high albedo reflects most of the sunlight that hits it, while a surface with low albedo absorbs most of the sunlight. Albedo is an important concept in climate science because it directly influences the Earth's energy balance and temperature.

(source: ChatCPG)
The radiative forcing from changes in the Earth's albedo (in W/m-2).

Albedo is a term used to describe the reflectivity of a surface or body, specifically how much sunlight (solar radiation) is reflected by that surface compared to how much is absorbed. It is expressed as a percentage or a value between 0 and 1, where:

  • Albedo of 0 means no reflection (complete absorption of sunlight).
  • Albedo of 1 means perfect reflection (no absorption of sunlight).

In other words, a surface with high albedo reflects most of the sunlight that hits it, while a surface with low albedo absorbs most of the sunlight. Albedo is an important concept in climate science because it directly influences the Earth's energy balance and temperature.

(source: ChatCPG)
The total radiative forcing (in W/m-2)
Total CO2 emissions (listed above but included in this list all the CO2e factors)
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from methane (CH4)
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from N2O
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from HFCs
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from CFCs
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from tropospheric ozone
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from contrails
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from land use changes
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from black snow on carbon
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from all of greenhouse gases other than the ones listed above
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from all of the greenhouse gases except CO2, CH2, and N2O
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from all of the greenhouse gases
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from aerosols
CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions from albedo changes
The total of all CO2 and CO2-equivelent CO2e) emissions
The ratio of the change in temperature to the change in radiative forcing for the specific year and atmospheric CO2
The temperature increase based on the total radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, aerosols, albedo, etc.
The temperature increase goal (user input)
The temperature increase goal (user input)
The amount of 'solar radiation management' either required as specified directly by the user or calculated from the temperature increase goal
The amount of 'solar radiation management' either required as specified directly by the user or calculated from the temperature increase goal
The temperature increase after the 'solar radiation management' is taken into account
Cost per ton sequestered by CCS
Cost per ton sequestered by DAC
Cost per ton sequestered by DAC
Cost per ton sequestered by afforestation
Cost per ton sequestered by afforestation
Cost per ton sequestered by mineralization
Cost per ton sequestered by mineralization
Cost per ton sequestered by agricultural soil carbon
Cost per ton sequestered by agricultural soil carbon
Cost per ton sequestered by biochar
Cost per ton sequestered by biochar
Cost per ton sequestered by oceanic carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)
Cost per ton sequestered by oceanic carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)
Cost per ton sequestered by
Average annual cost carbon dioxide removal all CDR
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for oceanic carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for biochar
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for agricultural soil carbon
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for mineralization
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for afforestation
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for DAC
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for CCS
An estimate of the size of the temperature spikes in 2023 and 2024 that was not due to natural variation and is not included in climate models - i.e., the permanent temperature increase that needs to be added to the temperature projections of climate models
The temperature increase after the 'temperature spike' is taken into account
Carbon removal refers to all human derived techniques/process that remove CO2 from the atmopshere (CCS, DAC, mineraliation, etc.)
The temperature increase after changes to both CO2 and Non-CO2 emissions are taken into account
The temperature increase after adjusting for the CDR needed to meet the 2100 temperature goal
Carbon removal refers to all human derived techniques/process that remove CO2 from the atmopshere (CCS, DAC, mineraliation, etc.)
Annual costs of disasters
Annual total costs of disasters, CDR, etc.
Annual costs of sea level rise per foot
Sea level rise
Annual costs of sea level rise
Cumulative Anthropogenic CO2 emissions after the year 2024
Cumulative FeedbackCO2 emissions after the year 2024
Cumulative Carbon Removed after the year 2024
The temperature increase for the original scenario (only displated if one was specified)
The atmospheric concentration of CO2 from the origonal scenrio
Adjustment to CO2 so that the calculated "CO2 PPM" matches the scenario's CO2 PPM value when the scenario's data is first loaded
Natural CH4
Sea Level Rise Per °C
Annual costs of disasters
The total radiative forcing (in W/m-2)
The total radiative forcing (in W/m-2)
The temperature increase based on the total radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, aerosols, albedo, etc.
CP2 Emissions captured at the source
CP2 Emissions captured at the source
Cost per ton sequestered
Annual cost carbon dioxide removal for DAC
CH4 Emissions
N2O Emissions
An estimate of the size of the temperature spikes in 2023 and 2024 that was not due to natural variation and is not included in climate models - i.e., the permanent temperature increase that needs to be added to the temperature projections of climate models
The total radiative forcing (in W/m-2)
The temperature increase after the 'temperature spike' is taken into account
Select a scenario to explore. 'Peak YYYY Zero YYYY' scenarios have constant CO2 emissions through the 'Peak' year, which then decline linearly to zero in the 'Zero' year
As the Earth warms, CO2 and methane (CH4) are emitted by thawing permafrost, forest fires, soils, etc. These are collectively referred to as "feedback emissions" and they "feedback" and cause the temperature to increase even more. This field is used to specify the CO2e quantity for feedbacks per degree Centigrade of temperature increase for the year 2100. The model defaults to using 7 GtCO2 in 2100 per ℃ of warming (e.g. this would result in 14 GtCO2e of emissions in 2100 if the temperature increased by 2℃ in 2100). Alternatively, the user can specify values for specific years. Note that the 2025 value is about 5GTCO2e. Note that the IPCC AR6 scenarios assume that the feedbacks will increase the radiative forcing by about 0.166 W/m-2 per degree Centigrade of temperature increase for the year 2100. This corresponds to about 7 GtCO2 in 2100. (This needs to be verfied.)
To simplify the specifications for the GHGs other than CO2, 10 "mitigation scenarios" were developed based on the corresponding emission trajectories in a set of SSPs - one each for the radiative forcing for CH4, N2O, and aerosols, and an "Other" for all GHGs. An 'aggressiveness' of 1 uses the lowest amount mitigated, while a value of 10 uses the highest mitigation amount. Values between 1 and 10 use a proportional value. Users can specify the 'aggressiveness' for each of CH4, N2O, aerosol, and other. If no value is specified a "Default" value (calculated based on the cumulative CO2 emissions) will be used. These radiative forcing amounts can be overridden by specifying specific yearly values on the "Advanced RF" portion on the web form.
If a value is selected, it will be used for 'Aggressiveness' if no other values are specified
Enter a specific 'Aggressiveness' value to be used for aerosols
Enter a specific 'Aggressiveness' value to be used for CH4 radiative forcing
Enter a specific 'Aggressiveness' value to be used for N2O radiative forcing
Graphs for other items
The starting year for CDR - used to determine the CDR requirement for a specific 2100 temperature increase goal (check the 'SRM' checkbox under 'Items For Input' to specify a temperature increase goal)
The year that CDR removals will peak and remain constant - used to determine the CDR requirement for a specific 2100 temperature increase goal (check the 'SRM' checkbox under 'Items For Input' to specify a temperature increase goal)
Click on one of the 'check boxes' below to enter specific values for the corresponding 'items'
Click on one of the 'check boxes' below to view the calculated values for the corresponding 'items'
The checkboxes the right enable entry/display of 'basic' items (e.g., for all 'carbon removal' techniques)
The checkboxes the right enable entry/display of 'advanced' items (e.g., for the various 'carbon removal' techniques - CCS, DAC, afforfestation, etc.)
Allows for specifying values for Anthropogenic CO2, Carbon Removal, and Feedbacks
Allows for specifying the radiative forcing (RF) values for CH4, N2O, the sum of all the other GHGs, aerosols, and albedo
Allows for specifying values the are used in calculations to lower the temperature increase. If a "Temperature Goal" is specified, the corresponding SRM and CDR requirements will also be calculated (note that the CDR requirement uses the 'Start Year' and 'Peak Year' selected on the left)
Allows for specifying values for the CO2 removal (CDR)
Allows for viewing the calculated values for Anthropogenic CO2, Carbon Removal, Feedbacks, and all of the calculations that were made to determine the atmospheric CO2 concentration
Allows for viewing the calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for CH4, N2O, Total of all other GHGs, aerosols, albedo, and the total RF
Allows for viewing the calculated CO2 equivalents for various GHGs, aerosols, and albedo change
Allows for viewing the calculated SRM and CDR values
Allows for viewing the calculated costs
Click 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for additional information
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are climate change scenarios that project how global society, economics, and demographics could change by 2100. They are used to analyze how these changes could affect climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios shown below were selected from the various SSP scenarios - they are generally the average of two scenarios developed for the IPCC's AR6 report .Note that SSP1-19 and SSP1-26 are not included as their CO2 emissions in 2025 were less than 33 GTCO2 in 2025. Likewise SSP3-Baseline and SSP5-Baseline are not included as their CO2 emissions in 2025 were more than 48 GTCO2 in 2025.
The IPCC’s most optimistic scenario, this describes a world where global CO2 emissions are cut to net zero around 2050. Societies switch to more sustainable practices, with focus shifting from economic growth to overall well-being. Investments in education and health go up. Inequality falls. Extreme weather is more common, but the world has dodged the worst impacts of climate change. This first scenario is the only one that meets the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, with warming hitting 1.5C but then dipping back down and stabilizing around 1.4C by the end of the century. (click 'SSP-1-19' to view the source: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/un-climate-reports-five-futures-decoded-2021-08-09/)
SSP1-2.6 is a climate scenario that models a sustainable development path with zero emissions after 2050:
Temperature: The temperature increase stabilizes at around 1.8°C by the end of the century.
Socio-economic trends: The scenario presents the same socio-economic trends towards sustainable development as in the first scenario.
Net zero emissions: The scenario implies net zero emissions in the second half of the century.
(source: Google search)
An update to scenario RCP4.5, SSP245 with an additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m² by the year 2100 represents the medium pathway of future greenhouse gas emissions. This scenario assumes that climate protection measures are being taken. (Source:https://www.dkrz.de/en/communication/climate-simulations/cmip6-en/the-ssp-scenarios)
The SSP3-Baseline is a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario that describes a future with high greenhouse gas emissions and low capacity for mitigation: Socioeconomic development. SSP3 is characterized by regional rivalry, where countries focus on domestic and regional issues over broader development. Economic development is slow, and inequalities persist or worsen.
Energy: SSP3 has high challenges for mitigation, with a focus on regionalized energy and land policies.
Emissions: SSP3 has high greenhouse gas emissions, including high aerosol emissions.
Land use: SSP3 sees a steady decrease in forest area, with a large expansion of cropland and pasture land.
Climate forcing: The climate forcing level in 2100 for the SSP3 baseline is similar to that of SSP2, but with higher CO2 emissions.
(source: Google search)
Click 'SSP4-34' for additional information
  • SSP4: "Inequality—A Road Divided"
    • This scenario assumes increasing inequalities between and within countries.
    • High-income countries and elites worldwide adopt low-carbon technologies and develop adaptation strategies.
    • Low-income countries and disadvantaged groups struggle with poverty, poor governance, and limited access to resources.
  • 3.4: Intermediate Forcing Scenario
    • The number "3.4" represents an intermediate radiative forcing level of 3.4 W/m² by 2100.

Implications for Climate Policy

  • This scenario emphasizes the need for addressing socioeconomic inequalities to achieve effective climate mitigation and adaptation globally.
  • It highlights the risk of leaving developing countries and vulnerable groups behind in the transition to a low-carbon future.
  • Achieving the radiative forcing level of 3.4 W/m² requires moderate reductions in GHG emissions, but without strong international cooperation, the effort may be insufficient to meet stricter climate goals like those of the Paris Agreement.
(Source: ChatGPT)
Click 'SSP4-60' for additional information

SSP4: "Inequality—A Road Divided"

  • Key Features:
    • Unequal Development: Persistent inequalities between regions, within countries, and among social groups.
    • Technological Advancement for the Wealthy: High-income countries and elites adopt advanced technologies and strategies for both mitigation and adaptation.
    • Struggles for the Poor: Developing nations and marginalized populations face governance challenges, economic constraints, and limited access to clean energy and resources.
  • This scenario envisions a world divided, where the benefits of progress are concentrated among the wealthy, leaving many behind.

Policy and Global Implications

  • Climate Justice: SSP4-6.0 underscores the importance of addressing inequality in climate policies. Without equity-focused solutions, mitigation and adaptation efforts will leave many behind.
  • International Cooperation: Bridging the gap between high- and low-income regions is essential to mitigate global warming and reduce vulnerabilities.
  • Technology Transfer: Encouraging the transfer of clean technologies to developing nations is critical in this scenario to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
(Source: ChatGPT)
Click 'SSP5-34' for additional information

SSP5: "Fossil-Fueled Development—Taking the Highway"

  • Key Narrative:
    • Economic and social development is fueled by rapid fossil-based energy use.
    • Emphasis on high economic growth, technological innovation, and global market integration.
    • Environmental degradation and high carbon emissions dominate the early decades.
    • A delayed but strong shift toward climate mitigation emerges later, driven by technological advancements and policy changes.
  • Lifestyle and Governance:
    • High material consumption and energy use per capita.
    • Technologically driven solutions to environmental problems.
    • Strong institutions and policies, particularly in high-income regions, lead to late-stage transitions to lower emissions.

Policy and Global Implications

  • Decoupling Growth from Emissions: SSP5-3.4 emphasizes the possibility of maintaining economic growth while reducing emissions through innovation.
  • Technological Reliance: The scenario assumes the success of large-scale deployment of CCS and NETs, making technology development and deployment a critical focus.
  • Delayed Action Risks: The reliance on late-stage mitigation creates risks if negative emissions technologies fail to scale as expected.
(Source: ChatGPT)
Click 'SSP5-Baseline' for additional information

SSP5: "Fossil-Fueled Development—Taking the Highway"

The SSP5 narrative envisions a world of rapid economic growth and technological progress fueled by fossil energy. Key features include:
  1. Fossil Fuel Dominance:
    • Widespread use of coal, oil, and natural gas supports economic growth.
    • High energy consumption is a hallmark of this pathway.
  2. Technological Innovation:
    • Rapid advancements in technology focus on improving energy efficiency and economic output but without a focus on reducing emissions.
  3. Economic Growth:
    • Strong global markets and trade integration drive unprecedented economic expansion.
    • Poverty eradication is achieved through market-driven mechanisms.
  4. Consumption Patterns:
    • Materialism and high-energy lifestyles dominate, particularly in industrialized and rapidly developing economies.
  5. Land Use:
    • Extensive land conversion for agriculture and resource extraction leads to biodiversity loss and habitat degradation.
  6. Global Inequality:
    • Inequalities persist but diminish as developing countries experience economic growth and catch up to wealthier nations.
(Source: ChatGPT)
These scenarios below are included to provide some examples
An EN-ROADS scenario that resulted in a 1.5 °C temperature increase in 2100. Note that the temperature increase shown here is greater since the En-Roads model does not appear to include any of the known feedbacks, and values for these feedbacks are included in the model's calculations.
An EN-ROADS "business as usual" scenario
A "moderate CO2 emissions" scenario which is more closely aligned with the expected emissions projected by IEA, MIT, etc.
Check one of the boxes below to select a simplified "Net-Zero Emission Scenario" that has CO2 emissions of 42 GTCO2 from 2025 through the "Peak Year of CO2 Emissions" followed by a linear reduction in CO2 emissions for the corresponding "# Years"
The year the CO2 emissions will peak (at 42 GTCO2)
The number of years from "peak emissions" to "net-zero" emissions
Specify the temperature increase desired for the year 2100. This value will be used to determine the "carbon budget"
Allows for the displaying of the temperature (and some cost) calculations involved in single scenario and also some graphs relating the scenario to sets of other scenarios. Many of the values used in making the calculations (e.g., CO2 emissions, total feedbacks, 'aggressiveness' of three non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, etc.) can be changed.
The various 'items' used by the model for its calculations
The 'unit of measurement' for the corresponding item
Input values for the various calculations - some of which can be changed
Click on one or more of the boxes below to explore (and compare and contrast) the corresponding scenarios
The annual net anthropogenic CO2 emissions (from fossil fuels, cement, land-use changes, etc.)
The annual solar radiation management (SRM, or 'albedo reduction') requirement needed to limit the temperature increase to the amount specified (the 'Desired Temperature Increase'). The model assumes that SRM starts when the calculated temperature exceeds the desired temperature
The annual carbon dioxide removal (CDR) requirement needed to limit the temperature increase in 2100 to the amount specified (the 'Desired Temperature Increase').
The projected global average surface temperature increase for the scenario that excludes SRM and CDR. Note that the that land temperature increase is about double the global average and the temperature increase in the Arctic is about four times the global average.
Click one of the radio buttons below to select a scenario to explore. The 'Scenario Explorer' tab will then be displayed
Up to nine groups of graphs can can be displayed in 'Overview' mode. Check one (or more) of the checkboxes below to display the corresponding graphs.
The Earth's temperature increased about 0.18° C per decade from 1970 through 2010. The Earth's temperature is expected to increase by about 0.26° C per decade from 2010 through 2050 based on the IPCC AR6 model data. Since this data was used by this computer program to develop a ratio between the total radiative forcing and temperature increase, a value selected here will adjust the ratio so that the decadal temperature will increase at the specified rate for at least the next few decades. The decadal temperature will be less than the specified value when the total radiative forcing no longer follows a linear trend. For example, James Hansen expects that the temperature is now increasing at about 0.36° C per decade, so selecting this value will increase the temperature by an additional 0.1° C per decade.
Abstract
Traditional general circulation models, or GCMs—that is, three-dimensional dynamical models with unresolved terms represented in equations with tunable parameters—have been a mainstay of climate research for several decades, and some of the pioneering studies have recently been recognized by a Nobel prize in Physics. Yet, there is considerable debate around their continuing role in the future. Frequently mentioned as limitations of GCMs are the structural error and uncertainty across models with different representations of unresolved scales and the fact that the models are tuned to reproduce certain aspects of the observed Earth. We consider these shortcomings in the context of a future generation of models that may address these issues through substantially higher resolution and detail, or through the use of machine learning techniques to match them better to observations, theory, and process models. It is our contention that calibration, far from being a weakness of models, is an essential element in the simulation of complex systems, and contributes to our understanding of their inner workings. Models can be calibrated to reveal both fine-scale detail and the global response to external perturbations. New methods enable us to articulate and improve the connections between the different levels of abstract representation of climate processes, and our understanding resides in an entire hierarchy of models where GCMs will continue to play a central role for the foreseeable future.
Based in the 'Moderate' scenario but with CDR used to reduce the temperature increase to 1.5°C
Based in the 'Moderate' scenario but with SRM used to reduce the temperature increaseto 1.5°C
Based in the 'Moderate' scenario but with an albedo change in of 0.2 W/m-1 in 2023 and CDR used to reduce the temperature increase to 1.5°C
The total costs incurred by the scenaro, including natural disasters, sea level rise, and carbon dioxode removal
The amount of solar radiation that needs to be refected to reach the temperature goal
The total amout of CO2 that needs to be removed from the atmosphere by CCS, BECCS, DAC, etc.
The original temperature increase for the scenario
Carbon removal in the original scenario
Enter a specific 'Aggressiveness' value to be used for 'Other' radiative forcing