Scenario Explorer - Additional Information

SSP4-34

  • SSP4: "Inequality—A Road Divided"

    • This scenario assumes increasing inequalities between and within countries.
    • High-income countries and elites worldwide adopt low-carbon technologies and develop adaptation strategies.
    • Low-income countries and disadvantaged groups struggle with poverty, poor governance, and limited access to resources.
  • 3.4: Intermediate Forcing Scenario

    • The number "3.4" represents an intermediate radiative forcing level of 3.4 W/m² by 2100. Radiative forcing refers to the balance between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat energy in the Earth’s atmosphere.
    • This level is lower than high-emission pathways (e.g., SSP5-8.5) but higher than stringent mitigation pathways (e.g., SSP1-1.9).

Key Characteristics of SSP4-3.4

  1. Mitigation Challenges:

    • Moderate global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
    • Wealthier nations lead in implementing mitigation strategies, but global cooperation is limited due to inequalities.
  2. Adaptation Challenges:

    • Significant challenges in adapting to climate impacts for low-income countries and vulnerable populations.
    • Uneven resource distribution exacerbates vulnerabilities.
  3. Energy System:

    • A mix of renewable and fossil fuels, with uneven access to clean energy technologies.
    • Slow transition in low-income regions compared to high-income ones.
  4. Land Use and Biodiversity:

    • Land-use change remains a driver of biodiversity loss in less developed regions.
    • High-income regions adopt sustainable land-use practices more quickly.
  5. Global Temperature Increase:

    • Likely to limit global warming to around 2.5–3°C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels, assuming emissions align with the intermediate forcing level.

Implications for Climate Policy

  • This scenario emphasizes the need for addressing socioeconomic inequalities to achieve effective climate mitigation and adaptation globally.
  • It highlights the risk of leaving developing countries and vulnerable groups behind in the transition to a low-carbon future.
  • Achieving the radiative forcing level of 3.4 W/m² requires moderate reductions in GHG emissions, but without strong international cooperation, the effort may be insufficient to meet stricter climate goals like those of the Paris Agreement.
(Source: ChatGPT)