SSP5-Baseline

SSP5: "Fossil-Fueled Development—Taking the Highway"

1. Fossil Fuel Dominance:
   • Widespread use of coal, oil, and natural gas supports economic growth.
   • High energy consumption is a hallmark of this pathway.
2. Technological Innovation:
   • Rapid advancements in technology focus on improving energy efficiency and economic output but without a focus on reducing emissions.
3. Economic Growth:
   • Strong global markets and trade integration drive unprecedented economic expansion.
   • Poverty eradication is achieved through market-driven mechanisms.
4. Consumption Patterns:
   • Materialism and high-energy lifestyles dominate, particularly in industrialized and rapidly developing economies.
5. Land Use:
   • Extensive land conversion for agriculture and resource extraction leads to biodiversity loss and habitat degradation.
6. Global Inequality:
   • Inequalities persist but diminish as developing countries experience economic growth and catch up to wealthier nations.

Baseline Pathway Characteristics

1. High Emissions:
   • Fossil fuel use continues unabated, leading to extremely high CO2 and other GHG emissions.
   • By 2100, atmospheric CO2 concentrations far exceed safe levels, driving significant climate change.
2. Radiative Forcing:
   • The baseline pathway corresponds to very high radiative forcing, often exceeding 8.5 W/m² by 2100 (similar to SSP5-8.5).
   • This leads to global temperature increases of approximately 4–5°C or more above pre-industrial levels.
3. Severe Climate Impacts:
   • Unchecked emissions result in extreme climate change, including:
     • More frequent and intense heatwaves, storms, and other extreme weather events.
     • Significant sea-level rise, threatening coastal cities and small island nations.
     • Loss of biodiversity and disruption of ecosystems.
4. Delayed Transition Risks:
   • A lack of early climate action creates challenges for future mitigation, as the carbon debt becomes harder to manage.

Comparison to SSP5 with Mitigation

• Baseline vs. Mitigated Pathways:
  • In mitigated SSP5 scenarios (e.g., SSP5-3.4 or SSP5-2.6), a shift toward carbon capture, renewables, and other technologies eventually limits emissions and stabilizes radiative forcing.
  • The baseline pathway assumes no such shift, leading to continuous, unchecked emissions and catastrophic warming.
• Energy System:
  • Baseline: Dominated by fossil fuels throughout the century.
  • Mitigated: Gradual transition to cleaner energy systems after mid-century.

Policy and Global Implications

1. Climate Risks:
   • The SSP5-Baseline scenario serves as a warning about the consequences of inaction, emphasizing the critical need for climate policies.
2. Technological and Economic Potential:
   • While SSP5 envisions immense technological and economic potential, without policies to curb emissions, this potential exacerbates environmental degradation and climate risks.
3. Adaptation and Vulnerability:
   • Developing nations and marginalized groups are disproportionately affected by severe climate impacts.
   • Adaptation challenges become overwhelming due to the scale and rapidity of climate change under the baseline pathway.