SSP4-60

SSP4: "Inequality—A Road Divided"

• Key Features:
  • Unequal Development: Persistent inequalities between regions, within countries, and among social groups.
  • Technological Advancement for the Wealthy: High-income countries and elites adopt advanced technologies and strategies for both mitigation and adaptation.
  • Struggles for the Poor: Developing nations and marginalized populations face governance challenges, economic constraints, and limited access to clean energy and resources.
• This scenario envisions a world divided, where the benefits of progress are concentrated among the wealthy, leaving many behind.

6.0: Radiative Forcing Pathway

• The "6.0" represents a radiative forcing level of 6.0 W/m² by 2100, which corresponds to a medium-to-high emissions scenario. This level of forcing is associated with substantial warming, leading to global temperature increases of approximately 3–4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
• It assumes relatively high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, though lower than in high-emission pathways like SSP5-8.5.

Key Characteristics of SSP4-6.0

1. Mitigation Challenges:

   • Limited global cooperation and fragmented efforts to reduce GHG emissions.
   • Wealthy nations and elites deploy low-carbon technologies selectively, while many regions continue to rely on fossil fuels.

2. Adaptation Challenges:

   • Significant disparities in the ability to adapt to climate change impacts.
   • Poor regions face severe challenges due to lack of resources and institutional capacity.
   • Coastal areas, small island nations, and vulnerable populations experience disproportionate impacts.

3. Energy System:

   • A mixed energy system, with some regions transitioning to renewables and others remaining dependent on fossil fuels.
   • Limited global investment in clean energy infrastructure for poorer nations.

4. Economic Growth and Development:

   • High-income nations see moderate economic growth, while low-income countries lag behind, exacerbating global inequalities.
   • Poverty and lack of access to education or healthcare persist in many areas.

5. Land Use and Biodiversity:

   • Deforestation and land degradation continue in low-income regions due to economic pressures.
   • Conservation efforts are more robust in wealthier nations but insufficient globally to curb biodiversity loss.

6. Climate Impacts:

   • Increased risks of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and ecosystem disruptions.
   • Vulnerable regions face significant damage from climate change, leading to migration, food insecurity, and social tensions.

Comparing SSP4-6.0 to Other Pathways

• Higher Emissions than SSP4-3.4: SSP4-6.0 represents a higher-emission scenario compared to SSP4-3.4, leading to greater global warming and more severe climate impacts.
• Lower Emissions than SSP5-8.5: Emissions are lower than in high-emission scenarios like SSP5-8.5, but the lack of strong mitigation still results in substantial warming.
• Focus on Inequality: Unlike other SSPs, SSP4 emphasizes stark inequalities, making the impacts of climate change more pronounced for the global poor.

Policy and Global Implications

• Climate Justice: SSP4-6.0 underscores the importance of addressing inequality in climate policies. Without equity-focused solutions, mitigation and adaptation efforts will leave many behind.
• International Cooperation: Bridging the gap between high- and low-income regions is essential to mitigate global warming and reduce vulnerabilities.
• Technology Transfer: Encouraging the transfer of clean technologies to developing nations is critical in this scenario to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.