Direct Air Capture Costs (from ChatGPT)

The cost of Direct Air Capture (DAC) this century is expected to vary significantly depending on technological advancements, policy support, energy prices, and deployment scale. Here’s a breakdown of current estimates and projections:

📍 Current Costs (as of 2020s):

• Climeworks (Switzerland): $600–$1,200 per ton of CO₂

• Carbon Engineering (Canada): $94–$232 per ton (as of 2018; more recent estimates tend toward the upper range when all costs are included)

• Global Thermostat: Similar range, though details are less transparent.

These numbers reflect early-stage, small-scale facilities. Costs include capital, operational, and energy inputs.

📈 Mid-Century Projections (by ~2050):

According to various sources including the IEA, IPCC, NASEM, and academic studies:

• Optimistic scenarios (with strong policy support, low-cost renewables, and economies of scale):
  $100–$300 per ton of CO₂

• Conservative projections:
  $300–$500 per ton

• High-end scenarios (slower innovation, expensive energy inputs):
  $500+ per ton

🔮 End-of-Century Projections (by ~2100):

• If DAC is widely deployed and benefits from scaling, modular design, and energy cost reductions (e.g. via cheap solar/wind or nuclear):

  • $50–$150 per ton of CO₂ (best-case scenario)

• If decarbonization progresses unevenly and DAC remains niche:

  • $200–$400 per ton, or higher

🧮 Key Variables Influencing Cost:

• Energy source: DAC is energy-intensive; cheap, clean electricity is essential.

• Scale: Larger deployment lowers unit costs.

• Technology choice: Liquid solvent vs. solid sorbent systems differ in capital and operating costs.

• Location: Proximity to sequestration sites or CO₂ utilization hubs affects cost.

• Policy incentives: Carbon pricing, tax credits (like the U.S. 45Q), and grants dramatically influence viability.

📚 References:

• NASEM (2021): "Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States" – gives DAC estimates around $100–$300/tCO₂ with potential for lower in long term.

• IEA (2022): "Direct Air Capture" technology report – projects similar long-term costs.

• Keith et al. (2018): Carbon Engineering’s peer-reviewed estimate of DAC cost around $94–$232/tCO₂.

• Realmonte et al. (2019, Nature Communications): Modeling shows costs vary dramatically depending on deployment and policy.